From The Dung Heap
An analytical look at The Dons & our opponents
Hearts- Tynecastle
SPFL Premiership - 30/3/2019
H-E-A
R-T-S
If you cannae spell it then you're probably going to struggle with the rest of this post...
Hearts are a stronger side at home than they are away. they have a 0.30 actual goal per game advantage and 0.36 xG per game advantage by playing in front of their lovely, welcoming fans.
So there's not a lot to choose from here. My guess is if a team comes away with 2 goals in their locker, it's going to be enough to win the game. History goes with that as well as the last time either team scored 3 against the other it was in 2015. Yes, of course it was us. 3 goals in a half. 2 from Goodwillie either side of that lovely McGinn cut in from the left wing leaving about 40 Hearts defenders on their arse before rocketing it into the top corner from a tight angle.
Anyway, that was 15 games ago. Who's going to make the difference in the upcoming game?
Not Naismith! The poor wee soul is still out after surgery. It's such a shame that the paying punters will be denied his graceful play and impecable sportsmanship! Ignoring his arseholeness (yes it's a word) he would have been the most likely candidate to poke the ball past Lewis and into the onion bag.
So if not Radgey McRadgepants then who?
Vanecek is the next most likely candidate. His numbers for Teplice are impressive. 0.48 goals per game. 0.42 xG per game. Which stick him just below what Naismith has managed this season (0.53 and 0.46 respectively). His numbers at Hearts leave a lot to be desired though. He's yet to manage a whole 90 minutes but in the 167 minutes he's played he's tallied up no shots on target, 2 shots on goal, 2 successful passes to the final thirdand a single xA of 0.03 against Dundee. At 6'4" it makes him a likely candidate to feed off Hearts' impressive set piece stats. They've scored 10 goals from set pieces this season, the second most in the league and it makes up 32% of their goals. The only team that's scored more from set pieces? Us! Although we rely slightly less on this to make up our tally (27%) but we have managed 11 to Hearts' 10.
Apart from Vanecek there doesn't seem to be a lot of danger.
All values per game
Wighton - 0 goals - 0.18xG
Maclean - 0.11 goals - 0.21xG
Ikpeazu - 0.26 goals - 0.36xG
Ikpeazu is an odd one. He seems to be more of a provider. Doesn't score a lot of goals but does a lot of running with the ball with almost 9 dribbles per game and nearly 6 touches in the opposition box per game. That's more than Greg Stewart, Stevie May, Niall McGinn, Morelos, Tavernier, Edouard, Forrest... I've run out of players to compare him with here. Those are some impressive numbers but he's still only averaging an assist every 4 games. When you look at his xA it plummets to 1 in 10. So either the strikers have been very lucky in converting or he's breaking the numbers. I can't see him being able to keep up that assist rate if he isn't providing quality chances and especially if they don't have a decent striker to feed off of him. It could be Vanecek, I just don't think he's up to speed yet.
Olly Lee is a great talent from deeper though and it's someone that one of our 2 DMs are going to want to pay special attention to. He's averaging 0.21 assists and 0.24 xA per game. For comparison's sake McGinn is our best provider with 0.24 assists and 0.31 xA and Tavernier who leads the assist table with 0.26 assists and 0.26 xA per game. Well done to their strikers to score exactly the right amount for that to work out pap on! Top stuff!
This is a nice wee example of what Hearts can manage. A solid and noticable 4-2-3-1 with nice links between the wingers, DMs and the full backs. They only managed a draw but an xG on 1.42-0.54 gives a fair indication that Hearts had the better of the chances and should have probably came out with all 3 points.
However we'd be looking to make their set up look more like this.
This is from a game earlier in the season against Dundee. Although they had good links in the middle of the park it never really gave them much in the way of chances. Olly Lee scored from a shot with an xG rating of 0.11 and the only shot better rated that reached the goal was a Morrison shot with an xG of 0.13. The best chance of the game fell to Keena with an xG of 0.25 but that was blocked before it reached the keeper.
Compare that to the 1-1 with St Mirren where you had the below
Dikamona - 0.36
Berra - 0.19
Dikamona - 0.16
Better chances created because of the links behind the front 4.
So if we can hassle them and interupt their play, break up the links between the full backs and wingers and keep a close eye on Olly Lee then we should be onto a winner.
Hopefully it doesn't get stuck with 2 teams trying to gain set piece after set piece with both teams being so successful at scoring from them as it's horrible to watch and both teams are more than capable of playing good, entertaining and exciting football.
H-E-A
R-T-S
If you cannae spell it then you're probably going to struggle with the rest of this post...
Hearts are a stronger side at home than they are away. they have a 0.30 actual goal per game advantage and 0.36 xG per game advantage by playing in front of their lovely, welcoming fans.
Hearts Home - Aberdeen Away
1.30 Goals 1.13
1.29 xG 1.21
So there's not a lot to choose from here. My guess is if a team comes away with 2 goals in their locker, it's going to be enough to win the game. History goes with that as well as the last time either team scored 3 against the other it was in 2015. Yes, of course it was us. 3 goals in a half. 2 from Goodwillie either side of that lovely McGinn cut in from the left wing leaving about 40 Hearts defenders on their arse before rocketing it into the top corner from a tight angle.
Anyway, that was 15 games ago. Who's going to make the difference in the upcoming game?
Not Naismith! The poor wee soul is still out after surgery. It's such a shame that the paying punters will be denied his graceful play and impecable sportsmanship! Ignoring his arseholeness (yes it's a word) he would have been the most likely candidate to poke the ball past Lewis and into the onion bag.
So if not Radgey McRadgepants then who?
Vanecek is the next most likely candidate. His numbers for Teplice are impressive. 0.48 goals per game. 0.42 xG per game. Which stick him just below what Naismith has managed this season (0.53 and 0.46 respectively). His numbers at Hearts leave a lot to be desired though. He's yet to manage a whole 90 minutes but in the 167 minutes he's played he's tallied up no shots on target, 2 shots on goal, 2 successful passes to the final thirdand a single xA of 0.03 against Dundee. At 6'4" it makes him a likely candidate to feed off Hearts' impressive set piece stats. They've scored 10 goals from set pieces this season, the second most in the league and it makes up 32% of their goals. The only team that's scored more from set pieces? Us! Although we rely slightly less on this to make up our tally (27%) but we have managed 11 to Hearts' 10.
Apart from Vanecek there doesn't seem to be a lot of danger.
All values per game
Wighton - 0 goals - 0.18xG
Maclean - 0.11 goals - 0.21xG
Ikpeazu - 0.26 goals - 0.36xG
Ikpeazu is an odd one. He seems to be more of a provider. Doesn't score a lot of goals but does a lot of running with the ball with almost 9 dribbles per game and nearly 6 touches in the opposition box per game. That's more than Greg Stewart, Stevie May, Niall McGinn, Morelos, Tavernier, Edouard, Forrest... I've run out of players to compare him with here. Those are some impressive numbers but he's still only averaging an assist every 4 games. When you look at his xA it plummets to 1 in 10. So either the strikers have been very lucky in converting or he's breaking the numbers. I can't see him being able to keep up that assist rate if he isn't providing quality chances and especially if they don't have a decent striker to feed off of him. It could be Vanecek, I just don't think he's up to speed yet.
Olly Lee is a great talent from deeper though and it's someone that one of our 2 DMs are going to want to pay special attention to. He's averaging 0.21 assists and 0.24 xA per game. For comparison's sake McGinn is our best provider with 0.24 assists and 0.31 xA and Tavernier who leads the assist table with 0.26 assists and 0.26 xA per game. Well done to their strikers to score exactly the right amount for that to work out pap on! Top stuff!
Hearts 1-1 St Mirren
However we'd be looking to make their set up look more like this.
Hearts 1-2 Dundee
This is from a game earlier in the season against Dundee. Although they had good links in the middle of the park it never really gave them much in the way of chances. Olly Lee scored from a shot with an xG rating of 0.11 and the only shot better rated that reached the goal was a Morrison shot with an xG of 0.13. The best chance of the game fell to Keena with an xG of 0.25 but that was blocked before it reached the keeper.
Compare that to the 1-1 with St Mirren where you had the below
Dikamona - 0.36
Berra - 0.19
Dikamona - 0.16
Better chances created because of the links behind the front 4.
So if we can hassle them and interupt their play, break up the links between the full backs and wingers and keep a close eye on Olly Lee then we should be onto a winner.
Hopefully it doesn't get stuck with 2 teams trying to gain set piece after set piece with both teams being so successful at scoring from them as it's horrible to watch and both teams are more than capable of playing good, entertaining and exciting football.
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