Hearts - SPFL Premiership - 04-08-2019

From The Dung Heap

An analytical look at The Dons & our opponents

Hearts- Pittodrie

SPFL Premiership - 04/8/2019


God, there's not much of a break is there?

Good news and bad news. Good news is Hearts were shite enough to be in the Betfred cup. The bad news is that Wyscout only have the Dundee United game available and that's all I've got to work with. So let's home in on that.

They do not like the ball being played around the edge of the box. That's how Shankland's goal was created and they looked all at sea.

Stanton and Clark both absolutely threw away chances to get Utd's second and Hickey (Lovebite to his pals) looks all at sea at left back. Stretch the game out wide there with McGinn, Gallagher, Hedges or McLennan and we should have no problems creating chances.

Hearts' chances came from set pieces or picking up loose balls or intercepting just outside the Dundee United box and whoever has half an inch of space acts like one of those toys where you'd push their head down and they'd kick the little ball that came with them (thatwould be lost very, very quickly) as hard as they could straight ahead of them. I think they had 1 chance created from open play with good passing.

Halkett will obviously be a threat from the set pieces they will no doubt "create for themselves" (which translates roughly to fucking dive) and with that wee rat bastard Naismith back they're a much more dangerous team to play against. I think they had a >60% win ratio with him in the team last season and without him it was about 16%. Not my stats but saw it on Twitter, sorry I can't source it.

So yeah, I don't have much to work with. Get it wide and play like we did in the 2nd leg against Chikhura and we won't have a problem leaving today with the 3 points. If we play like we did away from home in either of those 2 matches then Hearts will pick things up here and there and in all likelihood leave with something.

Chikhura - Europa League 2nd Qualifier 1st Leg

From The Dung Heap

An analytical look at The Dons & our opponents

Chikhura - 1st Leg Europa League Qualifiers

Well I missed the last een, but nobody’s perfect. So here goes the start of my analytical season! Style of play They piss around with the ball a lot at the back and their defensive 5 (in their 4-1-4-1) do the tippy tappy stuff that seems to drive a section of our fanbase absolutely bat shit insane. Maybe the “atmosphere” their player was talking about was the Georgian version of people going aff their tits screaming “GIT IH BA FORWARD!!!”. Goals Their goals against Fola in the home game were through balls past gaps in the back 4. Thankfully the gadgie that was their top scorer (9 in 17) has been punted to Lokomotivi Tbilisi. Their left winger Mikheil Sardalishvili (yes, it was a copy and paste job) is next on the list. He can pick a pass, can time a run behind a back line and seems to have a bosker of a shot on him. If we can get a defensive mid on him then I think we’ll nullify a huge amount of their threat. In terms of giving goals away… Fuck me their goalie is dodgy. Just fucking shoot. He literally dove out of the way of a shot from 5 yards or so from him. If Cosgrove can get anywhere near his usual amount of shots on target then we should piss this. He was around 31% shot accuracy in the last 2 games compared to the 42% he was hitting last season. He likes coming for crosses and if we can get a big physical presence around him then we might just be able to pick something up there. What he appears good at is releasing the ball quickly when he does come and claim it. They’re a much stronger team at home than away. Their home xG totals of 1.27 for and 0.96 away is encouraging in that we could get an away goal but they keep it tight compared to away from home. 1.2 for and 1.5 against means that if we want to win the tie we’ll need to score at least one over there. A 2-2 wouldn’t be a disaster and anything better than that would be a huge success. I assume we’ll beat them at Pittodrie but a 3-2 isn’t out of the question so leaving Georgia with nae ba’s in the ingin bug would be hugely detrimental. Another danger, and their biggest threat in terms of both assists and expected assists is their baldy right back. Takes set pieces and has a brilliant delivery on him. If he’s given space then we’ll pay for it. Hopefully Leigh is fit or else I think Considine will struggle. He doesn’t seem to be one for taking on his man and if he gets a yard or two he’ll get a decent ball in. I’ve got horrible flashbacks of the cross Olly Lee put in at Tynecastle when he was granted the freedom of Edinburgh from almost everyone in our team. Prediction 2-1 us with a Cosgrove header and a Ferguson drive. Another defensive switch off from us will let them score one from the edge of the box.

Hearts - SPFL Premiership - 30-3-2019

From The Dung Heap

An analytical look at The Dons & our opponents

Hearts- Tynecastle

SPFL Premiership - 30/3/2019


H-E-A
R-T-S
If you cannae spell it then you're probably going to struggle with the rest of this post...



Hearts are a stronger side at home than they are away. they have a 0.30 actual goal per game advantage and 0.36 xG per game advantage by playing in front of their lovely, welcoming fans.

Hearts Home - Aberdeen Away

1.30 Goals 1.13

1.29 xG 1.21

So there's not a lot to choose from here. My guess is if a team comes away with 2 goals in their locker, it's going to be enough to win the game. History goes with that as well as the last time either team scored 3 against the other it was in 2015. Yes, of course it was us. 3 goals in a half. 2 from Goodwillie either side of that lovely McGinn cut in from the left wing leaving about 40 Hearts defenders on their arse before rocketing it into the top corner from a tight angle.

Anyway, that was 15 games ago. Who's going to make the difference in the upcoming game?

Not Naismith! The poor wee soul is still out after surgery. It's such a shame that the paying punters will be denied his graceful play and impecable sportsmanship! Ignoring his arseholeness (yes it's a word) he would have been the most likely candidate to poke the ball past Lewis and into the onion bag.

So if not Radgey McRadgepants then who?

Vanecek is the next most likely candidate. His numbers for Teplice are impressive. 0.48 goals per game. 0.42 xG per game. Which stick him just below what Naismith has managed this season (0.53 and 0.46 respectively). His numbers at Hearts leave a lot to be desired though. He's yet to manage a whole 90 minutes but in the 167 minutes he's played he's tallied up no shots on target, 2 shots on goal, 2 successful passes to the final thirdand a single xA of 0.03 against Dundee. At 6'4" it makes him a likely candidate to feed off Hearts' impressive set piece stats. They've scored 10 goals from set pieces this season, the second most in the league and it makes up 32% of their goals. The only team that's scored more from set pieces? Us! Although we rely slightly less on this to make up our tally (27%) but we have managed 11 to Hearts' 10.

Apart from Vanecek there doesn't seem to be a lot of danger.


All values per game
Wighton - 0 goals - 0.18xG
Maclean - 0.11 goals - 0.21xG
Ikpeazu - 0.26 goals - 0.36xG

Ikpeazu is an odd one. He seems to be more of a provider. Doesn't score a lot of goals but does a lot of running with the ball with almost 9 dribbles per game and nearly 6 touches in the opposition box per game. That's more than Greg Stewart, Stevie May, Niall McGinn, Morelos, Tavernier, Edouard, Forrest... I've run out of players to compare him with here. Those are some impressive numbers but he's still only averaging an assist every 4 games. When you look at his xA it plummets to 1 in 10. So either the strikers have been very lucky in converting or he's breaking the numbers. I can't see him being able to keep up that assist rate if he isn't providing quality chances and especially if they don't have a decent striker to feed off of him. It could be Vanecek, I just don't think he's up to speed yet.


Olly Lee is a great talent from deeper though and it's someone that one of our 2 DMs are going to want to pay special attention to. He's averaging 0.21 assists and 0.24 xA per game. For comparison's sake McGinn is our best provider with 0.24 assists and 0.31 xA and Tavernier who leads the assist table with 0.26 assists and 0.26 xA per game. Well done to their strikers to score exactly the right amount for that to work out pap on! Top stuff!

Hearts 1-1 St Mirren

This is a nice wee example of what Hearts can manage. A solid and noticable 4-2-3-1 with nice links between the wingers, DMs and the full backs. They only managed a draw but an xG on 1.42-0.54 gives a fair indication that Hearts had the better of the chances and should have probably came out with all 3 points.

However we'd be looking to make their set up look more like this.

Hearts 1-2 Dundee

This is from a game earlier in the season against Dundee. Although they had good links in the middle of the park it never really gave them much in the way of chances. Olly Lee scored from a shot with an xG rating of 0.11 and the only shot better rated that reached the goal was a Morrison shot with an xG of 0.13. The best chance of the game fell to Keena with an xG of 0.25 but that was blocked before it reached the keeper.

Compare that to the 1-1 with St Mirren where you had the below
Dikamona - 0.36
Berra - 0.19
Dikamona - 0.16

Better chances created because of the links behind the front 4.

So if we can hassle them and interupt their play, break up the links between the full backs and wingers and keep a close eye on Olly Lee then we should be onto a winner.

Hopefully it doesn't get stuck with 2 teams trying to gain set piece after set piece with both teams being so successful at scoring from them as it's horrible to watch and both teams are more than capable of playing good, entertaining and exciting football.

Livi Recap ft. G Stew and Team Shape

From The Dung Heap

An analytical look at The Dons & our opponents

Livingston - Pittodrie

SPFL Premiership - 16/3/2019


So not only did I have to sit in the freezing cold for two hours, I now have to write about it. Thanks Aberdeen!

First of all, their goal. Devlin leaves his man to go and challenge Lewis Ferguson for the header which allows them time to control it and get the cross/shot in. Couldn't really expect Ball or McLennan to cut it out. Even if they got there it was ending up in the net. Really poor defending but I didn't need to rewatch it to realise that.

How on earth can Cosgrove be so deep here yet we've still got that huge expanse in the middle of the pitch that we just seem to forget about? Ball and McLennan linked up well again which is a plus point but McLennan has been dragged into that middle mush once again, so much so that he and McGinn on the opposite wing managed 7 passes between each other. It's not a whole heap but when McLennan and Ball was our best pairing with 18 it's closer to that than it should be. For comparison's sake, Forrest and Sinclair, and Kent and Candeias had 1 pass between the wingers in each game.

I just don't get what we're trying to achieve by pushing everything into the hole (ooh er!). May, too deep, Cosgrove, too deep, McLennan, too narrow, McGinn, a wee bit narrow. 3 players all occupying the same space and only McGinn appears to be the out ball. Could this be the reason Stewart isn't cutting it in red?


*drumroll*



Of course it is!

A lovely balanced team. You can see the formations and there's a definite role for each player in the team. You know exactly where Stewart is going to be when you're playing like that. You know where to run and he knows where the space will be.

Compare and contrast to what we have had recently...

What the hell is that?! We're really sad that McLean and Christie have left us so we'll get 3 players to do their job in each game? Sake! Is it any wonder we aren't producing anything? We've come a real way from where we used to be. Games against the 2 cheeks were almost foregone conclusions. Now that we've turned the tide there we've slipped up and ignored what we need to be doing to win the "little" games. Problem is, when you aren't winning the "little" games, they become huge.

I've compared the numbers from Stewart's first spell here, his time at Killie and at us this season. There's not a lot of outliers. But the one main one is at Killie, he was getting 2.81 shot assists on average per game. In this spell he's only managing 1.59. So the problem isn't behind him, it's what's happening ahead of him. With the wingers drifting in it's no surprise the main forward isn't finding the same space. Now this will probably evolve into a post in itself later on but we'll get to that when we get to it. I'll keep you all posted!

For our goal? McGinn plays a great switch on the counter to McLennan (yeah, I'm advocating them passing to each other now) and he runs down the wing, like an actual winger, and his cross leads to us scoring a goal. Imagine we based all of our play on that...

Ibrox Recap SCQF Replay

From The Dung Heap

An analytical look at The Dons & our opponents

"Them" - Ibrox

Scottish Cup- 16/3/2019

That had all the feelings of the 2-1 game down there. There wasn't a lot of nerves. A bit of hanging on in parts but fairly simple being brutally honest.

I said for the first game they'd make mistakes and we needed to capitalise on it. If they'd done it 4 minutes earlier then it would have saved everyone a lot of hassle and given us a huge Pittodrie bounce to remember. Still, I'm sure the <2% of the capacity in that shitey wee corner are glad it went the way it did.
I also suggested we force their wide players inside. This really worked with Kent on their left and Candeias was pushed so deep that his link with Tavernier didn't produce much.

Let's be honest, there's not really much we can take from our passmap. 83 successful passes. That's the lowest amount we've had since records began (start of the 15-16 season). Just over half of our passes found their man. That's the lowest completion rate of any of the games we've been involved in this season, opposition included. Defensively we did a fantastic job, but it came at a real cost offensively.

In terms of xG we were beaten comprehensively. When you get an early goal and the chance doesn't rate very highly (0.01 for our opener) then it's always going to make it seem like a smash and grab. First of all I'm shocked it is rated so low and secondly it shows McGregor should be doing a lot better. Thankfully he's an absolutely atrocious human being and the zombie hoards lap that up. They cut him a hell of a lot of slack because he apparently "get's it". I don't know how being a scumbag helps in keeping goal but long may it continue.

Our second shot of the game which led to the second goal had another astonishingly low value. 0.10 this time which has validated my screams of "MCGINN'S THERE! PLAY HIM PLAYHIMPLAYHIMPLAYHIM FUCKING SQUARE IT DON'T YOU DARE FUCKING SHOOT... YAAAAAAAASSSSSSS!!!!!!!". Cool, calm, collected attacking play from McLennan, the most inch perfect pass from May and another bit of dodgy goalkeeping sealed our place in the showpiece semi final between the best two teams in Scotland.

In terms of them dangering our goal, Tavernier had a shot blocked on the 57th minute. That was their most likely chance of scoring from a shot they took with an xG value of 0.26. The Rat/Snake/Judas hitting the post notched a 0.16 and that was the picks of a large but very low quality bunch.

A special shout here for Dom Ball and his work during that counter attack that Candeias made a complete and utter arse of. Cutting off the pass inside forced him to keep travelling with the ball and forced him into the hardest pass possible.

Considering in their average home game they score 2.28 and an average xG of 2.18 and we played the whole game defending, we did an amazing job keeping them down to an xG of 1.15. 19 shots and 4 on target. Their lowest accuracy % this season outside of the 0-0 at home to St Johnstone in which they managed a whole shot on target in 17 attempts. They had a higher xG that day though which means we forced them into shooting from less effective areas than St Johnstone managed.

This really was a game of extremes one way or another. 75 interceptions. The most we've had in a 90 minute game this season. In fact it's the most since we had since Ventspils where we had 76 at the start of season 16-17. I mean it's kind of unsurprising considering we gave the ball away so many bloody times but we still needed to win it back once we'd hoofed it back to them. Another big shout to Dom Ball and McKenna for their interceptions. McLennan well up there as well and his defensive work was key to our point at Parkhead as well. If he can keep up his effectiveness at both ends of the park he'll soon be one of the first names on the teamsheet!


TL;DR Get it right up them!

Mon the fucking Dons!

Livingston 16/3/2019

From The Dung Heap

An analytical look at The Dons & our opponents

Livingston - Pittodrie

SPFL Premiership- 16/3/2019


Goals

As the song goes, here we go. A chance to get our home form back on track.

Aberdeen at home

Goals for: 1.67

Goals against 1.28

xG for: 1.51

xG against: 0.90

Livi away

Goals for: 0.81

Goals against 1.29

xG for: 1.03

xG against: 1.48

Not as cut and dry as I'd thought on this front. Our xG totals in the previous games have been 1.25-1.53
in the gave at Almondvale The John Penne The Davy Conchiglie The Tony Macaroni Arena and a much more convincing in xG but still just a goal in it 3.24-0.27 at Pittodrie. 2 really disappointing goals to give away in that one. All of the goals we've lost to Livi have been defensive mishaps actually. The one away from home being the McKenna passback straight out of Alex McLeish's playbook, the first at Pittodrie Considine misjudges the header back to Lewis and both McKenna and Considine play their man onside by not holding the line for the latter.

These things happen, but it's probably better keeping them for tough wins against Livi in the league than European finals against Real Madrid eh Alex?


The goals they have lost seem to be coming from balls from the wide areas being put into the box. I feel like I'm saying this time and again. (When I wrote this opening sentence I had only planned to watch a few of their recent goals before not really noticing a theme... Oh how wrong was I?)

Shaugnessy for St Johnstone. Bit of pinball from a corner and it falls to him 6 yards out. Gift.

Flynn for St Mirren. A bit of the same but good play on the wing and a parried shot by the keeper gave Flynn a tap in 6 yards out.

`I'm noticing a theme... Nelson for Dundee. 6 yard line. Header. Beautiful wing play from Wright (loan) and an exquisite cross puts it on a plate.

Scott Wright (loan) wonder free kick. I'm sure we've all seen it from those snarky Dons fans. "If he can dee this then fit's he deein oot on loan? If only we hid 'at idday!"

For fucks sake Livi, get your act together. Cross. Header 6 yards out. Hastie. Motherwell. Goal.

Lovely through ball for Curtis Main to chip the keeper. maybe 8 yards out. I'll let them off with this one because it was good build up play.

No tap in for Hastie this time. Seals it with some silky play on the left side from a monsterous throw from the keeper. Brilliant counter, leaves two defenders on their arse and smashes it under the keeper.

That bastards from Ibrox scored 3. Hoachy deflection, Morelos saved from 6 yards out (haha! Everyone else fucking managed to score from there) and Kent scored from the rebound, then Morelos scored on a counter. Sorry for that bit.

Murray Davidson. Cross. Header. 6 yard line.

Ryan Porteous. Cross. Header. 6 yard line.

Jones for St Mirren. Cross. Header. 6 yard line.

No... I'm not fucking joking! Honestly!

I've stopped 3 times now because I've thought surely there can't be any more.

Greg Stewart... Corner... Header... 6 yard line...

Greg Stewart... COUNTER ATTACK! Thank Christ for that! Dribbles through and scores from just inside the box.

Candeias... 5 yards out from a corner. Come on to fuck!

Morelos beezer from just inside the box (sorry)

Oh and Arfield. Cross from Morelos and poked home 6... yards... from... goal...

Another counter attack. Bloomfield this time for Hamilton. Fires home from just inside the box.

I feel like I'm cheating a bit by adding this one but it's scored from 6 yards out by Kennedy from a Tony Watt cross. Not your typical wing play and it's on the counter but there's just no marking at all. Gallagher decides running into the net is more important than sticking with the only cunt that can possibly score.

Bowman scores a counter attack.

Horgan scores from, yes, around 6 yards after a bit of a stramash in the box.

Our goals have come through:

Down there. You guessed it. 6 yard line. James Wilson. Shot from Ball turned in.

Then Deano scored with his (can I mention a young boy like his unmentionables or am I going to end up on some kind of list?) let's say chest.

At Pittodrie
Crossgrove sets up McGinn on the penalty spot

Oh would you look at that. A cross from McLennan along the 6 yard line. Cosgrove dunts the underside of the bar and it's in.

Deep cross from a McGinn corner, it looks like it's the keeper's. NO WAIT HE'S DROPPED IT ON THE FUCKING 6 YARD LINE AND LEWIS FERGUSON HAS SCORED FROM 6 YARDS OUT!! Beautiful overhead kick under pressure though. Nae quite Burnley but stick at it loon!



Heaven's above! I've just looked through all the goals that Livi have lost under Holt. Life? Hah! Who needs one?!

15 goals they've lost from pissing distance from the 6 yard line. 5 from counter attacks. and 7 others.

15 of 27 ~ the 6 yard line. What a fucking shambles. Get it sorted Holt or I'm coming for your job!



Tactics

They seem to randomly ping between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Both games against us they've played the 4-2-3-1 so I can only assume they'll go down the same route again.

Away from home they went with 5 at the back against Hearts, St Johnstone, Dundee, Hibs, Hamilton, Motherwell and Hearts.
and 4 at the back against St Mirren, Motherwell, Aberdeen, Killie and at Ibrox.

It seems a tad scattered but a few of the 5-3-2 lineups came at the start of the season so maybe it was something Holt grew out of. I've also discounted the one at Parkhead that Kenny Miller was in charge for.

Did they really think that was a good idea? Kenny fucking Miller? I'm sure that gave people in all walks of life false hope that they too could get a job they were totally incabable of doing!


Passmaps


Almondvale 2-1

Really cramped, lumping balls to Cosgrove which was our most frequent successful pass (12), tried a 3-4-3 but it never really worked. The wide players rarely got the ball from the centre backs and there was a lack of build up play. Shinnie managed to work the ball to the wings 10 times with Wright and McLennan getting the ball 5 times but you're not going to get enough of the ball in the juicy parts of the pitch if that's all you're getting.

 Pittodrie 3-2

That was the chalk, here comes the cheese. Lovely 4-2-3-1 with Ferguson getting forward to help out. The wingers getting the ball? Logan to McLennan 14 times. Pisses all over the shitshow at The <name> <pasta> Arena. Lowe got the ball to Cosgrove 7 times compared to the 5 he managed with McGinn so I'm assuming McGinn was man marked. Opens up space and Cosgrove gladly picks it up in a dangerous area. Looking back at the passes that happened twice and the rest were lumps up the park... Good work by McGinn making runs once deep and once down the wing to open up the space though, and good awareness by Cosgrove to exploit it.

Almondvale 2-1

 Pittodrie 3-2

 I'm struggling... There's not much that resembles a formation here. Lumps to Menga and outwith balls to and from the keeper they've only really managed links between Halkett and Pittman in both games (6 and 5) and Lawless and Gallagher which they could do all day and not really damage us with the positions they were in. So passes through the middle seem to be what they've tried against us and it doesn't seem to have paid dividends surprisingly considering how close the games have been going by the scoreline.

So yeah. This should be simple. Let the wingers and the full backs drag the back 4. Stick Sam Cosgrove on a pole 6 yards from goal like a table football player and we'll win by about 20 goals!

15 from 27... Jesus.